Tropical cyclone intensity from satellite imagery
A ResNet-18 fine-tuned on fifteen Atlantic storms, held out by storm and scored against HURDAT2 best track. Held-out MAE 9.00 kt.
| Storm | Best track | Predicted | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claudette | 35 kt | 35.1 kt | +0.1 kt |
| Nicole | 35 kt | 47.4 kt | +12.4 kt |
| Ian | 110 kt | 126.5 kt | +16.5 kt |
| Ian | 125 kt | 92.0 kt | −33.0 kt |
On Ian, the only held-out storm that reached major strength, the model pulls toward the middle in both directions: +16.5 kt at a 110 kt fix on 27 Sep, then −33.0 kt at a 125 kt fix on 28 Sep 20:35Z. Grad-CAM attribution shows the model keying on the eyewall ring, but Cat 4–5 samples are rare next to tropical-storm samples, so the loss is happy to regress toward the middle. Ian is the only held-out major, so this is one storm.
